The media is in overdrive trying to draw your eyeballs to them and scare the heck out of you.
While not out of the woods yet, the United States is in the midst of a massive comeback.
The U.S. stock market had a bad day Wednesday and gave back about 3.4% of the massive 40%+ gain it’s had over the past four years. This, despite the shutdown of much of our country for the past 7 months.
Year-to-date Stock Market Returns:
NASDAQ up 23.7%
S&P 500 up 1.7%
DOW up 6.4%
Riots and looting by criminals hurt or destroyed many businesses too. It seems that has started again in Philadelphia and may pick up post-election. The winners from this and the Covid related shut down were many huge conglomerates as they were able to survive and thrive during this period.
The bad news is that many small businesses were not capable of surviving the shutdowns or violence. Both the shutdowns and criminal looting will likely dissipate over time, but it will too late for the little guys. The winners will thrive and it has already shown in their stock prices (think Apple, Amazon, Microsoft,etc.) and should in the future as well.
Covid
Covid-19 positive tests are spiking. So are the number of tests each day. These days over 1,000,000 Americans are getting tested daily. In IL, for example, Governor Pritzker once longed for the day when 20,000 people would be tested daily. Recently that number hit 80,000 in a day.
The good, unreported, news is that most of these cases are asymptomatic or have very few and short-lived symptoms. Unfortunately, some people have adverse consequences (including dying) and those are the only ones that are spotlighted.
The elderly and vulnerable are being protected much more than they were at the beginning especially in states like NY, NJ, and IL. Despite the case spikes those dying “with” not necessarily “from” Covid is not rising anywhere near as much as the positive test numbers. Better treatments and many young healthy people tested positive is a big part of this.
Economy
The 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Production (GDP) number is due out this week and I expect an unprecedented economic bounce of 25% plus! We are a resilient nation.
Link to 3rd qtr. GDP report – The economy goes BOOM!
The fastest GDP pace for any quarter since World War II!!!
Weekly jobless claims just hit 7 month low – BOOM
It’s amazing to me that our national unemployment number is under 8% when NY, Chicago, LA, and all of California is mostly shut down. Imagine if/when they ever open up again, BOOM!
If stock prices drop a lot more, I would consider it a great buying opportunity. The decline will be temporary. Depending on how the election goes, the snapback will either be a slow plodding one or a much quicker bounce back. Either way stock investors will do well in the long-term.
Watch the media with a keen eye. Remember, their goal is ratings (that’s what advertisers pay for) and they play to their audience and whoever is putting money in their pockets. FEAR SELLS.
Don’t let fear win the day. Be brave, use logic and persevere.
Keep your eye on what you can control including your personal family goals and wellness.
Let me know if you would like to schedule a time to discuss your planning, your portfolio, or anything else. I can meet via Zoom or in-person. Click this scheduling link.
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